Wiley, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

056
FXUS65 KPUB 050559
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1159 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front arrives through the overnight hours, leading a
  significant change in weather for the next several days.
- Expect temperatures to be around 20 degrees cooler tomorrow
  than what we`re seeing today, with scattered to numerous
  showers and thunderstorms over the high country, and chances
  for rain and persistent cloud cover over the plains.
- Rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
  coverage over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Currently..
As of 2PM, a cold frontal boundary is located along the northern
Colorado border. This front is expected to arrive later this
evening, which will significantly change our weather pattern for the
next several days. Currently though, showers and weak thunderstorms
can be observed on satellite and radar imagery over portions of the
San Juans and the Continental Divide. Mostly clear skies are present
over the plains, with some Cu developing over the I-25 corridor and
eastern mountains. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s and
low to mid 90s on the plains, with 70s over mountain valleys.
Dewpoints are in the 20s and 30s over and near the mountains, with a
few 40s and low 50s still present on our far eastern plains. Winds
are mainly terrain driven except near thunderstorms.
Rest of Today and Tonight..
Above normal temperatures and mostly sunny skies are expected to
persist over the plains through the rest of today, though there will
be a very slight chance for isolated thunderstorms over the Palmer
Divide and Kiowa County through the rest of this evening. The
primary concern with storms this evening, both on our plains and
over the higher terrain, will be winds gusting to 50 mph. Rain and
thunderstorm chances wane on the plains, but seem to continue into
the overnight hours and well through tomorrow over the high country
as moisture continues to stream in from our southwest. Models bring
a cold front through our plains generally around midnight tonight,
bringing northerly wind gusts of up to 35 mph or so.
Tomorrow..
Behind the cold front, rain chances increase gradually through the
early morning hours as winds shift easterly and southeasterly,
leading to the development of upsloping conditions for much of our
mountain adjacent plains. High res model guidance seems to
suggest that the highest chances of light rain showers earliest
in the event will be along the Lower Arkansas River Valley,
which seems consistent with the timing of easterly, upsloping
winds through the early morning hours. As winds become
southeasterly, it seems possible that much of the Colorado
Springs area may remain fairly socked in with clouds and off and
on light precipitation throughout much of the day tomorrow. If
that becomes the case, chances for any embedded thunderstorm
activity over the I-25 corridor along and north of Highway 50
will decrease with time as we`ll increase our chances of
remaining too stable. Higher chances of any clearing and
resultant embedded thunderstorm activity will remain further
south, generally south of Highway 50 and east of I-25. Either
way, temperatures tomorrow afternoon look to remain a solid 20
to 25 degrees cooler than where we are today, with the majority
of the plains remaining firmly in the 60s for daytime highs.
Peaks above 13,000ft are also likely to see snowflakes, though
many areas will not see enough for any accumulations. Pikes Peak
may see enough to have a trace to possibly a half an inch or so
of new snow by the end of the day tomorrow. As mentioned in the
previous section, showers and thunderstorms remain numerous in
coverage over the high country throughout the day tomorrow, with
upwards of 0.4 to 0.8 inches of QPF possible over a 24 hours
period from this evening through tomorrow evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Friday Night - Sunday: For the weekend, active weather is expected
across south central and southeastern Colorado. Messy flow will be
in place, as shortwaves/disturbances push across the region within
the broader flow, bringing elevated forcing the area. Along with
that, moisture will increase in response to a tropical system
pushing inland from the Pacific, though the richer moisture is
expected to remain further south. With the uptick in forcing and
moisture, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated during this period, with the greatest coverage of
showers and storms during the afternoons and remaining along the
mountains. Beyond all of that, light, to at times breezy, winds are
expected as the disturbances push over, with partly cloudy skies
through most the weekend given the unsettled pattern. As for
temperatures, thanks a cold front Thursday night, much of the area
is expected to remain below seasonal values for early September.
Monday - Wednesday: For the first half of next week, active weather
continues for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. A
pattern change is anticipated, as ridging develops over/just to the
east of the area, with large troughing developing to the west. While
broad forcing is expected to decrease with the ridging, enhanced flow
between the ridge and troughing is expected to allow for orographic
forcing to persist. Along with that, at least modest moisture will
remain in place as southerly flow keeps some moisture advection
going. Given forcing and moisture still in place, daily showers and
storms are expected, though less in coverage than over the weekend
given the downtick in broader forcing/support. Still though, the
greatest coverage of showers and storms is expected during the
afternoon and along the mountains where forcing will be greatest.
Outside of all of that, winds are anticipated to stay relatively
light, with periods of increased cloud cover, particularly during
the afternoon hours. Looking at temperatures, a slow and gradual
warm up is expected, with near to slightly above seasonal values by
midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
At KCOS and KPUB, ne surface winds behind a cold front overnight
will turn gradually sely Fri morning between 10z-12z, leading to
a period of MVFR/brief IFR cigs and occasional light showers
into early afternoon. Prevailing cigs begin to trend toward VFR
after 20z, though chances for showers increase 20z-24z, bringing
a period of MVFR vis/cigs under any heavier precip. Shower
chances diminish during the evening, though a mix of MVFR/low
VFR cigs is likely to continue through the night.
At KALS, VFR cigs will lower through the night, with a period of
MVFR cigs and -ra/-dz 12z-16z. VCSH with VFR cigs then
continues through the day into Friday evening, with a window
from 18z-23z for a tsra and potential MVFR/IFR conditions under
any stronger storms.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion