Williamsburg, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

196
FXUS64 KEPZ 160359
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
959 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 808 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
- We will see better thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
   as moisture returns to the area.
- A bit less moisture Thursday into the weekend, but isolated
   thunderstorms still possible. Temperatures will remain near
   normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 808 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
We saw some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but they
struggled since our moisture levels aloft was somewhat limited.
For Tuesday we will see a little more moisture creep into the
region. Our precipitable water values (PW`s) today will a little
below and inch but on Tuesday those values will creep up closer
or even a little above an inch. At the same time, the upper level
ridge that was centered over the region will drift a little south
and weaken some. With the ridge drifting off and a little extra
moisture that should be enough to get us better thunderstorm
coverage on Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will be a few
degrees cooler than Monday`s highs, but that should still be a
couple of degrees above average.
On Wednesday we will have a complicated pattern across the western
U.S. with a skinny upper level ridge across the intermountain
west, while upper level troughs will be in the Midwest and along
the southern California coast. The Midwest trough may be just
close enough to help get some thunderstorms going Wednesday
afternoon as our PW`s will continue to run just a little above 1
inch. By Thursday the upper level ridge to our west will drift
eastward be centered through Arizona and Utah. The ridge will help
limit, but not eliminate, our thunderstorm chances Thursday
afternoon and evening.
For Friday the upper level ridge will drift well south and that
will open the door to a series of short wave troughs to move
across the region. These troughs will continue to give us a chance
for thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. The main trough looks to
sweep across the area on Sunday morning and it will move out a
lot of moisture from the region. The pattern, very briefly, looks
very Fall like on Sunday, but by the start of next week, the
extended models have the upper level ridge returning to the desert
southwest which would keep us dry and warm our afternoon high
temperatures well above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 808 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Moisture will be on the increase for Tuesday and that will help
give us a better chance for thunderstorms. For tonight, our winds
will be light and variable or light from the southeast. Those
south to southeast winds will continue during the day on Tuesday
but the winds will generally stay below 10 knots. We will see
mainly unlimited ceilings tonight, maybe some high ceilings near
the International Border during the overnight hours. For much of
the day on Tuesday we will have unlimited ceilings, but by the
afternoon we will see clouds beginning to increase. We could see
some mid to high ceilings in the afternoon into the evening hours.
There will be a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday, with the main
threat be strong outflow winds. It still is too early to tell if
any TAF sites will see any direct thunderstorm impacts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Tail end of the monsoon continues through the period. Modest
amounts of moisture will remain in place this week for isolated
thunderstorms each day. Risk of flooding will remain on the lower
side. Humidity will remain well above the critical level.
Min RHs: Lowlands 25-35% through Saturday. Gila/Black Range 35-50%
through Saturday. Sacramento Mtns 40-55% through Saturday. Vent
rates fair-good through Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  90  69  89 /  20  30  20  20
Sierra Blanca            59  84  60  84 /  20  20  10  20
Las Cruces               63  86  63  84 /  10  40  30  20
Alamogordo               62  87  63  86 /  20  30  20  30
Cloudcroft               45  64  45  63 /  20  40  20  60
Truth or Consequences    62  85  62  84 /  10  40  30  20
Silver City              58  80  58  79 /  10  60  40  40
Deming                   64  89  63  87 /  10  50  40  20
Lordsburg                64  86  63  84 /  10  50  30  30
West El Paso Metro       70  88  70  87 /  20  30  30  20
Dell City                62  87  63  87 /  20  10  10  20
Fort Hancock             67  89  68  89 /  20  20  10  20
Loma Linda               61  81  62  80 /  20  30  20  20
Fabens                   66  88  67  88 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Teresa             66  87  66  86 /  20  30  30  20
White Sands HQ           65  87  65  86 /  20  30  30  30
Jornada Range            62  86  63  84 /  10  40  30  30
Hatch                    62  89  63  87 /  10  40  40  30
Columbus                 64  88  65  87 /  10  40  30  20
Orogrande                62  86  62  84 /  20  30  20  30
Mayhill                  50  75  50  74 /  20  50  10  60
Mescalero                50  77  50  75 /  20  40  20  60
Timberon                 49  73  49  71 /  20  40  20  50
Winston                  52  78  51  77 /  20  50  30  40
Hillsboro                59  85  59  84 /  20  50  40  30
Spaceport                60  85  61  84 /  10  40  30  30
Lake Roberts             46  81  52  79 /  10  60  40  50
Hurley                   58  82  58  81 /  20  50  40  30
Cliff                    49  87  60  86 /  10  60  30  30
Mule Creek               46  83  58  82 /  10  50  30  20
Faywood                  59  82  60  80 /  10  50  40  30
Animas                   63  87  63  84 /  20  50  20  30
Hachita                  62  85  62  84 /  20  40  30  30
Antelope Wells           62  86  62  84 /  20  50  20  30
Cloverdale               61  81  60  79 /  20  60  20  30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion