Willow Wood Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

653
FXUS61 KRLX 131803
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
203 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather stretches across the work week amid strong upper
level ridging. A moisture starved cold frontal passage around
midweek will bring cooler weather to close out the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...
Ridging just west of the forcast area will maintain dry weather
this period. Low clouds will continue to form from north to
south along and just west of the mountains through tonight, in
a low level surge of cold advection in northwest flow around a
low pressure center along the middle Atlantic seaboard, and then
persist into Tuesday, even as that low drifts east, offshore,
overnight and Tuesday.
The middle Ohio Valley will have a mainly clear sky through
tonight. Stratus is then likely to develop toward dawn and
may persist through much of the daylight morning hours Tuesday,
before lifting and breaking up into a low cumulus field early
Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will bottom out just above normal tonight and top
out just above on Tuesday, which is just a little lower than
lows this morning and highs today, respectively. However,
temperatures may be hindered further Tuesday where stratus
persists longest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...
Ridging dominates all levels just west of the area through
midweek, before drifting eastward, and overhead at least at the
surface, Thursday night. A mid/upper-level flat wave drives a
reinforcing Canadian high into the forecast area Wednesday and
Wednesday night, behind a moisture starved, roughly west to east
oriented cold front.
Temperatures will trend slightly lower, near normal for highs
Wednesday, and then a bit below normal on Thursday, likely not
getting out of the 60s across the lowlands. Lows will be near
normal Tuesday night, below normal Wednesday night with valley
frost possible in and near the northern mountains, and then a
bit further below normal Thursday night with surface high
pressure overhead. This is likely to result in more ideal
radiational cooling conditions, and a more widespread frost at
least across northern portions of the area, even a freeze in the
better sheltered northern mountain valleys.
Will continue to monitor forecast trends for potential future
frost/freeze headlines.
The reinforcing Canadian high will also bring in drier air, with
afternoon relative humidity percentages dropping at least down
to the 30s Thursday afternoon. However, light flow associated
with the high should keep fire spread potential at a minimum.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...
Ridging shifts east of the area at all levels Friday through
Saturday, allowing a full-lattitude mid/upper-level trough to
approach from the west. That trough will drive a surface cold
front through the area on Sunday, before crossing itself Sunday
afternoon and night. Models diverge on the exodus of this
mid/upper-level trough Sunday night and Monday, the more
progressive Canadian allowing mid/upper-level ridging to build
from the west on Monday, while the GFS and ECMWF slow the
feature down and close off a mid/upper-level low over the
northeastern states.
After a continuation of dry weather, with a warming trend,
Friday into Saturday, the amplified system is likely to pull
enough Gulf moisture northward ahead of it for showers Saturday
night through Sunday night. This timing is likely to be better
resolved in future forecasts, but the showers are most likely
during the day on Sunday.
There could be a thunderstorm in the middle Ohio Valley
Saturday evening if the front gets close enough. By contrast,
there could be a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon if the front is
slow enough to allow sufficient diurnal heating ahead of it, the
amplified system somewhat offsetting the lowering autumn sun
angle. Central guidance leans toward the faster scenario, with
just the slight chance for a thunderstorm Saturday night.
Monday will bring drying and clearing given a more progressive
solution, or clouds and even the chance for showers given a
slower, more amplified mid/upper-level trough.
Temperatures climb above normal Friday through Saturday night
ahead of the incoming system, and then back down to and below
behind it early next week. Relative humidity percentages will
drop at least down to the 30s again Friday afternoon. However,
flow will again be light. Flow will increase a bit from the
south on Saturday, but so should dew points and, albeit to a
lesser extent given the higher high temperatures, minimum
afternoon relative humidity percentages.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...
MVFR stratocumulus will continue to form from north to south
along and just west of the mountains through tonight, in northwest
flow around a low pressure center along the middle Atlantic
seaboard, and then persist into Tuesday, even as that low
drifts east, offshore, overnight and Tuesday. Ceilings are
likely to lower to IFR stratus at EKN tonight, and at CKB and BKW
overnight, and then linger at all three sites through much, if
not all, of Tuesday morning.
The middle Ohio Valley will have VFR conditions with a mainly
clear sky that through tonight. IFR stratus is then likely to
develop toward dawn and impact PKB, HTS and CRW mainly during
the daylight morning hours Tuesday, before lifting and breaking
up into a low cumulus field early Tuesday afternoon.
Surface flow will be a bit gusty from the north during the day,
and light north at night. Flow aloft will be light to moderate
north to northeast, strongest during the early morning hours.
The low level flow is expected to be strong enough to preclude
overnight fog formation for the most part, although there may be
MVFR mist in the mountains, EKN and BKW, if the stratus hangs
low enough Tuesday morning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Formation of MVFR stratocu, its lowering to
IFR stratus overnight tonight and early Tuesday morning, and
then improvement midday Tuesday, may vary in degree and timing.
Visibility may get lower than forecast Tuesday morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning the rest of this
week.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion