Wilson School Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

001
FXUS64 KAMA 150525
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1225 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
-Rain chances return for some areas on Thursday and Friday.
-Near average temperature through Monday, with below average
 temperatures that could return a week from now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Latest 05Z satellite analysis shows portions of the Panhandles
under a narrow stream of moisture advection moving northeast into
the region. This corridor of moisture will shift to the west for
today across New Mexico bringing mostly dry conditions for the
Panhandles. Temperatures today under mostly clear skies will
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Going into the day tomorrow,
as the main H500 high pressure system centered over the ArkLaTex
compresses and the H500 trough traverses northeast into the
central Rockies, the aforementioned axis of best moisture
transport will shift back into the Panhandles. Given good H850-700
theta-e advection ahead of the trough axis, with instability,
generally under 1000 J/kg, along with a Pacific front moving into
the Panhandles, along said front, we could see an area of
thunderstorms develop. Went ahead and expanded POPs in coverage to
account the better moisture transport into the region, especially
areas just ahead of the front. The central and western Panhandles
have the best chances of seeing rainfall with this system. Latest
hi-res prob blends shows a 30-40% chance of at least 0.25" of an
inch of rain for the western Texas Panhandle by tomorrow night.
Low temperatures tomorrow night with clearing skies will range
from the mid 40s in the NW to upper 50s in the SE.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Residual moisture from the Pacific front and downstream of the
eastward moving H500 trough will give the far SE TX Panhandle
around a 20% chance of rain by Friday evening. Otherwise, dry
conditions expected to continue throughout the long term forecast
period. A series of low amplitude trough and ridges across the
southern CONUS should keep us mostly dry. Temperatures will also
oscillate between near to above average from later this week
through the weekend, to below average temperatures by the end of
the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. The
only exception could be for KGUY/KDHT through 12Z where patchy fog
at times could reduce vsbys. However, confidence was not high
enough to include in TAF at this time. Winds will be out of the
south and southwest at 5-15 kts through 12-15Z will increase
afterwards to 10-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts at times through
the end of the TAF period with mostly clear skies.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion