Windy Point, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

371
FXUS65 KGJT 222329
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
529 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms continue this evening, with some
  additional showers overnight as the front works through.
- Snow levels drop to around 10000 feet tonight, with light
  accumulations expected for the northern mountains and trace
  amounts south of I-70.
- Temperatures average 10 degrees below climatology Tuesday.
- Drier air returns Wednesday with the next chances for
  precipitation possible next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 344 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Split flow across the CWA has introduced two distinct regimes today.
A stacked low working across the Intermountain West is dragging a
boundary through our northern counties, with numerous showers and
thunderstorms from the Uinta Basin to the Park Range and southward
to the Colorado River. Shallow moisture on the mid day sounding with
some dry air at the mid levels has kept rain production minimal. A
few gusty outflows to around 45 mph and some small hail remain a
possibility this afternoon and evening as the front drags through.
Meanwhile, a low anchored off the SOCAL coast, is pushing a jet
streak across the Four Corners. Jet forcing and a separate plume of
moisture has kept some stratiform cloud cover across southern
Colorado today. Cloud cover has kept convection from entering the
conversation. Durango has yet to crack 60 degrees as of this
writing, a much different regime beneath those clouds.
This evening, the stacked low is expected to drift south and east.
This will introduce some additional cold air and more showers south
of I-70. Snow levels stick around the 10,000 foot mark and above.
Closer to the low along the high peaks of the Park Range and the
Gores, a few inches of snow will accumulate. As far as pass level,
Vail Pass is expected to see a rain/snow mix with some light
accumulation on grassy surfaces, but little on the roads.
Nonetheless, mountain travelers will want to keep abreast of weather
conditions there tonight and early Tuesday. South of I-70, moisture
and snow will taper, but a dusting on the peaks is expected, with
not much to worry about at pass level there, as overnight lows
barely get into the mid/upper 30`s. A heavily tilted trough and
decaying frontal boundary stretching from the Four Corners to the
Plains will stick around Tuesday. This should produce some
additional showers and thunderstorms across the region through the
day Tuesday before northwest flow scours the remaining moisture
Tuesday night. Precipitation is expected to taper pretty quickly
Tuesday evening, but a few showers will linger along the west edge
of the Divide into Wednesday morning, with dry air taking over by
daybreak. Temperatures will trend nearly 10 degrees below
climatology on Tuesday afternoon, with morning lows Wednesday
trending around 5 degrees under.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 344 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Dry air overtakes the region on Wednesday as the jet stream
currently providing the moisture tap for the region moves southward.
Conditions remain seasonable until a ridge builds in on Thursday
providing enough warm air advection to lift temperatures into the
low to mid 80s for the lower valleys.
The residence of dry air will be short lived, with an unsettled
weather patter regaining control Thursday night into Friday.
Moisture will hang over the southern half of the forecast area
before spreading north into the weekend. Global ensembles hold onto
this moisture well into next week. While there is a lot of time for
things to change between now and then, one can expect the forecast
to trend wetter and cooler this weekend after a warmer and drier
second half of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact all
TAF sites through the next 3 hours, then taper off by 06z. These
storms are capable of dropping hail up to 1 inch in diameter,
as well as producing very heavy rain, frequent lightning, and
gusty winds up to 45 knots. Once this activity tapers off, skies
will remain broken to overcast for much of the area, but
ceilings will remain above breakpoints. Showers and
thunderstorms will form along the Divide tomorrow afternoon,
mainly impacting KEGE, KASE, and KGUC. Otherwise, remaining
terminals will see gusty, westerly winds during the afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail, but drops to MVFR/IFR are possible
throughout the period.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion