Winifred, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

138
FXUS65 KTFX 272051
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
251 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- General warm and dry conditions continue through early next
  week with the warmest afternoon highs expected on Monday.
- Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity increases Monday and
  Tuesday, most numerous in the southwest and along the divide.
- Unsettled conditions are expected for the second half of next
  week while temperatures cool to near or even below average by
  the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
- Meteorological Overview:
Ridging aloft will maintain well above average temperatures
through Tuesday despite height falls and an unstable southwesterly
flow developing over the Northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday.
Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will slowly move
northeastward from the Great Basin and begin to impact areas
mostly in southwest MT areas along the Continental Divide by
Monday. A trough moving into the Pacific Northwest will strengthen
the southwesterly flow on Tuesday and eject a shortwave into the
Northern Rockies, resulting in more northward expansion of showers
and thunderstorms into central/north-central MT and increased
winds, especially in the southwest.
Most ensembles favor the Pacific Northwest trough maintaining its
position before broadening and weakening a bit while it
approaches the forecast area. Gusty winds will precede the trough
before precipitation chances increase next weekend. Uncertainty
remains on the higher with this system, especially in terms of
strength and whether or not it becomes a closed circulation.
Although, there is a wide outcome of potential solutions, at the
very least, there is an expectation for cooling temperatures and
increased precipitation chances heading into next weekend. - RCG
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Increased shower and thunderstorm activity Monday and Tuesday
followed by cooler and unsettled conditions for the second half of
next week...
A more unstable southwesterly flow aloft combined with well above
average temperatures will result in scattered shower and
thunderstorm development on Monday and Tuesday. Areas along the
Continental Divide and in southwest MT will see the most
widespread activity on Monday, but even areas over the plains may
see an isolated storm or two, especially near the Little/Big Belt
Mountains and in the Milk River Valley area. Showers and storms
will be more evenly distributed on Tuesday, albeit with a slightly
higher concentration over the southwest. Impacts should generally
be limited localized gusty winds, brief downpours, and lightning.
Those involved with outdoor recreation and sporting events should
have a plan to seek shelter should storms and lightning approach
their area.
The second half of the week looks to start off with periods of
gusty winds followed by increased precipitation chances heading
into the weekend. stronger (40 to 50 kt) mid- and low level
southerly flow ahead of the trough looks to bring the strongest
winds over Madison Valley and the surrounding higher terrain on
Tuesday and Wednesday where there is a 30 to 50% chance for wind
gusts exceeding 50 mph.
Weather for the upcoming weekend largely depends on the evolution
of the Pacific trough as it moves eastward. At least a third of
the ensembles highlight a trough that is sufficiently deep and
cold to support the coldest temperatures of the fall season thus
far with a couple rounds of precipitation, including snow in the
mountains and even at some lower elevations. The remaining
ensemble solutions maintain a more diffuse trough with moderated
cooling and less precipitation. The aforementioned divergent
solutions among members and poor run to run consistency erodes
forecast confidence, but the situation will be closely monitored
in the coming days. - RCG
&&
.AVIATION...
27/18Z TAF Period.
West to southwesterly winds will continue to gust in the 15 to 25 kt
range over the plains through 27/22Z before becoming south to
southeasterly and decreasing tonight. A weak cold front will move
through the plains Sunday morning and bring a northerly wind shift;
otherwise, ridging aloft will maintain VFR conditions under passing
higher level clouds. Haze and smoke from wildfires west of the
divide will continue to marginally compromise slantwise visibility.
- RCG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  78  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  43  70  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  47  81  50  83 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  43  81  48  81 /   0   0   0  10
WYS  32  70  37  69 /   0  10  20  30
DLN  41  79  45  77 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  45  79  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  79  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion