Winona, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

071
FXUS61 KRLX 210458
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1258 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather prevails for Sunday, but some areas see chances of
precipitation. Chances of rain and storms become more
widespread for the next work week. Cold front midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1235 AM Sunday...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue today as
southernly winds allow for an increase in moisture. This will
cause scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the
afternoon, possibly continuing Sunday night. Effective layer
CAPES will reach into the 1500 to 2000 range in portions of
southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky. With some mid level dry
air and freezing levels around or just above 12000 feet, could
see some large hail and damaging winds in stronger thunderstorms
over portions of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky during
the afternoon hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...
Starting Monday, an upper low pressure system will traverse into
the Great Lakes and send an upper level trough across our area
promoting increased activity during the afternoon and through
the evening. The most prevalent areas to have the most activity
will be along the Ohio River and west of there. Thunderstorms
will likely be diurnal in nature although we cannot rule out an
isolated storm or two overnight.
A feature which will be a frontal boundary associated with the
aforementioned low pressure system will drape across the midwest
all the way up to the northeast and will keep active weather in
the forecast through Tuesday. Tuesday will likely be most
active day with likely PoPs during the afternoon across much of
the area with very high chances of thunderstorm
chances/probability as well.
The pattern is kind of messy, but that aforementioned upper low
will phase with another system forecast to develop out across
the Midwest and is forecast to traverse into our region pushing
that aforementioned frontal boundary into our area. This will
keep high chances for active weather through Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...
The aforementioned upper low is forecast to stay over our
region and keep chances of active weather on the table for most
of this period with mainly just diurnal chances for
thunderstorms. We begin to decrease in activity by Friday night
where that system begins to shift eastward. Temperatures will
stay just about average for this period with much of the area
under cooler and cloudier conditions throughout his period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1235 AM Sunday...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could cause restrictions,
more numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. Outside of
the precipitation, expect mainly VFR conditions. Light
southeasterly winds this morning will become more southerly at 5
to 15 mph this afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                   SUN 09/21/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
Brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms throughout the week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Compared to historical records and the 1991-2020 U.S. Climate
Normals, it was a very warm summer across the NWS Charleston
forecast area. The summer season encapsulates the period of June
1st through August 31st. Mean temperatures for the 2025 summer
season were generally 1 to 3 degrees above normal. This translated
into four official NWS Charleston climate locations making the
top 10 in terms of their warmest mean summer temperatures on record.
As is typical during the summer season, precipitation totals
varied rather significantly across the forecast area depending
on location, ranging from as low as 7 to 9 inches in portions of
southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky, to as high as 16 to nearly
20 inches across some locations in the lowlands of West Virginia
and northeast mountains. This resulted in a wide range of
precipitation departures depending on location, with some areas
ending up well below normal in terms of total precipitation,
while others well above normal, with the overall spread of
departures ranging from approximately +/- 5 inches. Even with
this wide range of precipitation totals across the forecast area,
no top 10s were set at any of the official NWS Charleston climate
locations in terms of wettest or driest summer on record.
Summer 2025 Top Tens Set (Mean Temperature)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Location             Top 10 Rank                Observed Value
- Elkins, WV         : 2nd Warmest             -> 72.1 F
- Huntington, WV     : 4th Warmest             -> 77.9 F
- Clarksburg, WV     : Tied 4th Warmest        -> 74.5 F
- Beckley, WV        : 6th Warmest             -> 71.9 F
-------------------------------------------------------------------
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/JZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...RPY
CLIMATE...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion