Winston Salem, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

085
FXUS62 KRAH 071859
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
259 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift southeast of our area this evening. The
front will then settle off the coast of the southeastern United
States into the middle of the week as cool high pressure extends
into the area from the Mid-Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...
* Post frontal stratus will gradually begin to lift from
  northwest to southeast this evening.
* Areas of mist and drizzle associated with a surge of northeast
  flow are possible over the next few hours across the Piedmont
  and Coastal Plain with a brief period of light rain possible
  across the northern Piedmont.
* Locations south of the front in the southern Sandhills and
  southern Coastal Plain are in the warm sector and unstable with
  scattered showers and storms possible into the early evening.
A cold front extends from near Kitty Hawk southwest to near
Goldsboro to Southern Pines. South of the front, it is warm and
moist with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower
70s. The air mass is weakly to moderately unstable with MLCAPE
values in 500-1000 J/kg range near Laurinburg, Fayetteville and
Clinton. This air mass ahead of the front will support
scattered showers and thunderstorms into the early evening
hours. This deeper convection should subside as the front moves
further south and east and the airmass stabilizes. Some of the
convection allowing models note that there could be a few
patches of rain or showers that continue into the late evening
hours across Wayne, Sampson and Cumberland counties with any
measurable rain ending by late this evening.
North of the front, a cool and moist northeast flow has resulted in
an autumnal day with widespread clouds, a cool northeast breeze and
patchy drizzle or mist. The frontal zone noted noted by a 10-15
degree temperature change across a 30 mile distance. The leading
edge of the cooler air mass can be seen in the krax radar and it now
south of Smithfield and Lillington. A few patches of light rain
are also noted across the northern Piedmont in a region of
enhanced moisture ahead of the 850 to 700 mb trough. As the
moisture shifts south and east, and drier air invades from the
northwest, the widespread low stratus will gradually lift
overnight with fair and dry weather after midnight.
North to northeast winds at 10 mph will gust at times to 20 mph this
afternoon and evening. The winds will relax a bit overnight with a
northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph overnight. -Blaes
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 123 PM Sunday...
The sfc front will remain stalled well off the Carolina Coast on
Monday as nely flow locks in over central NC.  Expect cooler weather
with highs only reaching the lower to mid 70s. There is good
consensus amongst models for H9/H8 drier air to advect into central
NC Monday afternoon.  As such, expect good mixing and dew points to
fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s from nw to se. Given the tight
gradient between a strong sfc high over New England and a developing
offshore low, expect nnely gusts of 15 to 25 mph throughout the day
highest for those east of I-95. Forecast soundings indicate mixing
continuing overnight and as such expect gusts to continue through
Tuesday morning. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...
* Near to below normal temperatures
* Best chance for rain will be across the Coastal Plain Tuesday
  night/Wednesday. Otherwise, dry weather should prevail.
Aloft, a broad trough to the west Tue and Wed will gradually shift
ewd across the area Thu and Fri as a s/w swings through it. The s/w
will move offshore on Sat, while a s/w drops south out of Canada and
into the Northeast through Sun. There are still some differences in
the available guidance wrt the strength of the weekend s/w, as well
as the position of the ridge to the west of it. At the surface, cool
high pressure will ridge swd across the area Tue and Wed as the
parent high lifts nnewd across New England and Nova Scotia.
Meanwhile, an elongated coastal low may develop within the inverted
trough offshore potentially strengthening as it lifts nnewd along
and away from the NC coast Wed/Wed night. Another Canadian high will
move ewd across Ontario and Quebec Wed and Thu, ridging swd into the
region, then continuing to slide ssewd across the Northeast Fri and
Sat. The high should shift off/along the New England coast Sat
night/Sun, while continuing to ridge sswwd into the area.
Temperatures: Cool nly-nely flow for much of the period will result
in near to below normal temperatures across the area. There is the
chance for a bit of damming on Wed, which could result in high
temperatures on Wed a bit lower than forecast across portions of the
Piedmont. The warmest days will be Thu/Fri, when the nly-nely flow
and ridging are weakest.
Precipitation: Most of central NC will likely remain dry through the
period. The exception is in proximity to the coastal low/trough Tue
night/Wed. Have maintained some slight chances for precip across the
Coastal Plain, with higher chances along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...
Widespread MVFR stratus continues across central NC, largely in the
wake of a southwest progressing cold front that is moving across the
Coastal Plain and Sandhills this afternoon. Near and to the south of
the front the airmass is warmer and could support some scattered
afternoon and evening showers and perhaps a thunderstorms, mainly
near and south of KGSB, KFBG, and KMEB. To the north and across most
of central NC, a cool and stable northeast flow will result in
widespread MVFR CIGS for most of the afternoon. Drier air well
behind the front is moving southeast into the Triad as of mid
afternoon and will continue to slowly spread southeast this evening
and overnight. This will result in some improvement in conditions
with VFR conditions arriving in the Triad between 18 and 21Z, at
KRDU and KRWI at around 22Z. KFAY will be a little trickier with
that location being in the warm sector this afternoon and then a
period of post frontal stratus this evening with some improvement
overnight. Areas of BKN clouds between 4-8kft can be expected across
the area overnight. The trend of improving sky conditions can be
expected on Monday with mainly clear skies and just a little high
cirrus in most locations although some residual moisture will result
in some VFR SCT-BKN clouds at KFAY during the morning. Northeast
winds at 10kts will gust at times to 20kts behind the front this
afternoon and evening. Northeast winds will relax a bit overnight
but will become gusty up to 16 to 20kts on Monday.
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail into much of the upcoming
work week although a stalled front near the coast could retreat and
favor some increased cloud cover and a chance of sub-VFR conditions
in showers across eastern locations late Tuesday into Wednesday.
-Blaes
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Blaes

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion