Wolfforth, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

691
FXUS64 KLUB 071117
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
617 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly on the
   Caprock.
- Low storm chances return Monday afternoon for portions of the
   forecast area.
- Dry and very warm weather is forecast Tuesday and beyond.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Fair weather is expected through the early afternoon hours Sunday,
with isolated thunderstorms possible through the evening. In the
mid/upper-levels, a well-defined belt of confluent flow continues to
advect over the CWA, as a strong, subtropical ridge meanders over
central Mexico and a longwave trough slowly progresses eastward
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. The anticyclonic
vortex associated with the subtropical ridge is significantly
tilted, such that the mid-level circulation was rotating over the
Sea of Cortez, thereby allowing the ridge to steadily amplify over
the Intermountain West. The 07/00Z objectively analyzed UA charts
observed slightly positive geopotential height tendencies (e.g., at
around +2 to +3 dam) along the entire chain of the Rocky Mountains
and into the Great Plains. Increasing large-scale subsidence
produced by this amplifying ridge has caused the earlier convection
across the higher terrain of NM to collapse, and PoPs were removed
area-wide through the late-morning hours Sunday. Throughout the rest
of the short-term period, the anticyclonic vortex will begin to
align over Baja California Sur, causing the attendant jet streak
arcing around the apex of the ridge to increase in concavity and
orient the deep-layer flow towards the northwest.
At the surface, a quasi-stationary front was dammed along the edge
of the Mescalero Escarpment, and branches farther southward into the
TX Big Bend and eventually southeastward along the Rio Grande River
Valley. A weak surface high was located near AVK, with southeasterly
winds remaining light area-wide, as METARs and OK mesonet data
indicate that the pressure is near 1022 mb at the center of the
surface high. It is possible that some highly localized, patchy fog
develops by sunrise for some locales across the CWA, especially as
the low-level stratus deck has almost completely eroded. However,
the spatiotemporal coverage of fog is too limited to warrant a
reflection in the official forecast grids. The formation of fog may
also be offset by redevelopment of the stratus layer, which would be
thin in depth, and any stratus will quickly mix out following the
onset of insolation after sunrise. Observations from Saturday
morning, in addition to the trends in high-resolution guidance,
indicate that the redevelopment of low-level stratus has a better
potential of coming to fruition given little change in the airmass.
A series of shorter-wave perturbations embedded within the 250 mb
jet streak are expected to generate high-based convection to the
northwest of the CWA Sunday afternoon. Semi-organized clusters of
storms may cross into the far southern TX PH by the late afternoon
hours, with the well-mixed sub-cloud layer enhancing the potential
for locally strong gusts near 50 mph. Outflow(s) may surge ahead of
the once-established cold pools near dusk, with storms eventually
collapsing at their own demise following nocturnal stabilization of
the boundary-layer and as inflow is undercut. PoPs were tweaked to
account for this thinking, with storm chances forecast to end after
08/03Z (10 PM CDT Sunday night). Low temperatures heading into
Monday morning will be a couple of degrees warmer due to the
southeasterly breeze beneath the building geopotential heights.
Sincavage
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Additional chances for isolated storms will return to portions of
the CWA Monday afternoon, but coverage is forecast to be limited
via warming of the mid-levels as the subtropical ridge to the west
continues to amplify. Strong heating is expected by the afternoon
hours, with a surface-based cu field forecast to develop as high
temperatures peak in the upper 80s area-wide. WAA-induced rain
showers from the low-level jet will be possible during the morning
hours Monday across portions of the northern Rolling Plains and
far southern TX PH, especially as the lower airmass nears its
saturation point and elevated parcels are able to rise from the
LFC. Strong, mid-level subsidence will suppress updrafts Monday
morning, with no lightning expected. Coverage of storms heading
into the afternoon hours Monday are forecast to remain isolated
due to the magnitude of subsidence aloft and as the subtropical
jet streak shifts farther southward, causing deep-layer flow to
become even more confluent, especially as mid-level flow veers
northward. The potential for storms Monday will wane following
nocturnal stabilization of the boundary-layer, with similar
overnight lows forecast heading into Tuesday morning.
The subtropical ridge is forecast to shift eastward over W TX by the
middle of the week, and will eliminate any chances for PoPs through
Friday. A dry and very warm forecast continues to be the highlight
throughout the remainder of the period, with highs breaching 90
degrees area-wide each afternoon Tuesday through next weekend. By
next weekend, global NWP guidance is indicating the potential for an
anticyclonic wave breaking event to occur across western North
America. Such wave breaks are notorious for generating closed lows
embedded within sharply cyclonic flow. However, guidance remains
bifurcated on the amplitude of the wave break and the respective
positioning of the trough. The forecast remains mostly dry for next
weekend, and PoPs will be adjusted as the week progresses and
guidance attains a better handle on the synoptic-scale evolution.
Sincavage
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A broken deck of low stratus will persist over most of the region
through mid-morning before thinning by midday, but CIGs are
expected to remain VFR at all TAF sites throughout the next 24
hours. This afternoon and evening, a few isolated TS may develop
near LBB and PVW, but terminal impacts appear unlikely at this
time.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion