Woodland Hills Country Club Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

774
FXUS61 KPHI 122342
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
742 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will continue to affect the region through
Monday, bringing significant impacts to the coastal areas.
Improving conditions expected by Tuesday as the storm weakens
and moves out to sea. High pressure will begin building back
into the region during the middle to end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 730 PM, the western portion of the rain shield is trying
to expand westward. Some low-level moistening is occurring
farther west where earlier drier air had advected down from the
north, however a strengthening low-level jet at 850 mb is
lifting northward and this should enhance some lift by later
tonight into Monday morning. As a result, areas of rain should
expand westward through Monday morning. The main impacts will
continue for the our coastal communities due to strong onshore winds
and significant/severe coastal flooding. Wind gusts along the
coast have been as high as 40-59 mph so far.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track overall. Most severe
impacts remain near and along the coast. As a brisk low-level
jet moves overhead this evening at the coast, winds could
become even stronger, with gusts near 60 MPH at the Jersey Shore
and Delaware beaches. No changes were made to the wind
headlines, with a High Wind Warning still in place for the
immediate coastlines of New Jersey and Delaware as well as all
of Cape May County through 6 AM Monday. Wind Advisory remains
in place for Monmouth, Ocean, and Atlantic County in NJ outside
of the coastal strip through the same time, with the same being
true for mainland Sussex County, DE.
In terms of rainfall, the forecast continues to trend downward as a
more strung out, double barrel low has developed. Main concern with
this system is the tidal flooding and wind, with the remaining a
limited tertiary threat. So far, 0.50-1.00 inches of rain has
fallen along the coast. When we`re all said and done, the coast
will end up with about 2 inches, with around a half inch to 1.0
inch elsewhere.
In terms of how the timing looks, areas of rain will shift
westward trough tonight and Monday. We start to dry out later
Monday night and transition to a quieter mid-week period.
Winds will be strongest over the next 12 hours or so before dying
down just before daybreak. Monday still will be breezy though
but nothing like today. Gusts inland could get near 30 MPH at
times, with 40 MPH gusts at the immediate coast.
It will be damp and dreary to start the week, with temperatures
Monday in the upper 50s/low 60s. There won`t be much of a drop
overnight with temperatures, as lows will be in the low to mid
50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions will improve across the area Tuesday morning as the slow
moving coastal system moves away from our area. Lingering clouds and
a few showers across NJ/DE early will decrease by afternoon.
Increasing amounts of sunshine expected for the afternoon. Dry
weather will be across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday as high
pressure begins to build in. Temperatures will be within a few
degrees of normal Tue/Wed with mostly mid/upper 60s most spots and
lows favoring the low/mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much happening for the long term. Like last week, a large area
of high pressure builds in during the midweek period and slowly
moves away during the weekend. Models are showing a system following
for late next weekend, but since it`s at the edge of our forecast
time range we`ll just mention the slight chance or chance pops for
Sunday attm. Temperatures will be like last week too. Readings will
be below normal Wed night/Thu  then rise to above normal for next
weekend. Normal highs for the Delaware Valley this time of year are
in the mid 60s with lows in the upper 40s. Further north, highs are
normal close to 60 with lows in the upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...Ceilings lower through MVFR and eventually IFR
(remaining IFR at KMIV and KACY). Some rounds of rain/drizzle
will result in visibility restrictions at times. Northeasterly
winds 15-25 knots with gusts mostly 25-35 knots. Low confidence.
Monday...MVFR/IFR ceilings. Areas of rain will result in
MVFR/IFR visibilities at times. North-northeast winds 15-20
knots with gusts up to 30 knots, which may diminish some in the
afternoon especially south and east of KPHL. Low confidence.
Outlook...
Monday night...Lower conditions continuing. Improvement N/W
towards morning.
Tuesday...Lower clouds across coastal areas early then VFR
returning. VFR N/W and Delaware Valley areas thru the day.
Tue night thru Friday...VFR expected. Patchy morning fog
possible.
&&
.MARINE...
A Storm Warning is in effect for all Atlantic coastal waters and
lower Delaware Bay through Monday. Wind gusts of 50 kt or higher are
expected especially this afternoon and during the overnight hours.
Seas of 11 to 16 feet are expected. Winds are a bit less on the
Upper Delaware Bay, around 30-40 kt out of the northeast.
Once the Storm Warning expires, a Gale Warning likely will be needed
as 34+ kt wind gusts could continue through Monday Night. Seas
Monday Night of 8 to 12 feet expected.
Outlook...
SCA/low-end Gales continue Tue into Wednesday many areas then lowering
winds and seas into the late week period and continuing Sat.
Showers Tuesday then Fair for Wed thru Sat.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Moderate to major coastal flooding impacts have begun and will
continue through Monday as a coastal storm impacts the region.
Guidance still varies in potential outcomes of this storm with
regard to severity of coastal flood impacts locally, however we
remain very concerned about significant impacts from this storm
along our coasts. The greatest threat of impacts are anticipated
to occur along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware,
and Delaware Bay. While the forecast may change and waffle
between Moderate or Major, the actual flood stage and tide level
will not change much. Regardless of what level the tides hit,
an impactful event is expected and residents should listen to
officials and emergency managers throughout this event. A
Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect through Monday evening.
Widespread minor tidal flooding is expected on the tidal Delaware
River with tonight and Monday night`s high tide, where a Coastal
Flood Advisory is in effect.
Severe beach erosion and dune breaching are quite possible along the
entire New Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches due to the very
high/dangerous surf conditions.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT Monday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for NJZ013-020-022-027.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for NJZ014-023>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT Monday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for DEZ002>004.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for DEZ003.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ430.
     Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AKL
NEAR TERM...Gorse/Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Gorse/OHara
MARINE...Hoeflich
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hoeflich

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion