511 FXUS64 KHUN 112325 AFDHUNArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 625 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
A few scattered clouds are in place from Fort Payne, AL SW towards Birmingham, AL. Temperatures with abundant sunshine have climbed into the lower to mid 70s in most locations. Winds are from the N or NE between 5 and 10 mph with some gusts to 15 mph sporadically.
Expect these clouds to dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Then winds should become light and variable later this evening, especially in sheltered valley locations. However, models continue to bring drier air SSW into the area overnight. This may keep fog from being quite as dense overnight in portions of NE AL. However, kept patchy fog in the grids to account for some fog.
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.SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Strong upper level ridging over the Texas and Missouri Southern Plains area weakens significantly into Sunday, as a weakening upper low and associated longwave trough axis moves through the Pacific NW. The eastern edge of this upper level ridging slides east and into northern AL Sunday into early next week as it strengthens over the SE CONUS. This will keep the weather dry and should warm things up. Highs should climb back into the upper 70 to lower 80s in most areas Sunday and Monday.
A more impressive warmup may be in store towards midweek, as a 593 mb upper level ridge develops in several models centered over NE Texas on Tuesday. Models currently are hitting the 80 to 85 degree range, but this may be underdone. Would not be surprised to see some 83 to 87 degree highs based on 925 mb thickness values with little cloud cover expected. Lows should warm into the lower to mid 50s by then.
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.LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Not much change into Thursday, except the upper ridge weakens some as it edges further east over northern Lousiana. Some thin high clouds may push into portions of northern Alabama Thursday night. Not sure they will be thick enough to affect overnight lows much, as they continue to slowly warm.
A stronger cold front extending southward from south central Canada is shown approaching the southeastern CONUS Friday into the upcoming weekend. This should bring a denser area of high clouds across the area on Friday. Models may be under-forecasting the widespread nature of the high cloud right now, so temperatures could be a tad lower, but not much. Highs still should climb into the 80 to 85 degree range though (upper ridge - not quite as strong as earlier in the week).
Friday night into Saturday, as the front moves east towards the Ohio Valley region, low/mid level moisture increases and lift moves into the Tennessee Valley. Not sure if moisture content will be high enough to produce heavy rainfall, but definitely some light rainfall looks possible.
By Saturday night into Sunday morning, this could change as even stronger lift moves into northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Some heavier showers look possible with maybe some scattered thunderstorms, but shear is too weak for any storms to be very strong.
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Patchy light fog may develop early Sunday morning at both terminals, resulting in MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the end of the period.
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.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. &&
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NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...AMP.24
NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion