Worthville, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

262
FXUS61 KILN 050959
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
559 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening and continue
into Saturday morning as another cold front moves through the region.
High pressure will move over the region early next week, providing
below normal temperatures and dry conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid level short wave energy moving through the broader upper level
trough will push east across the mid Ohio Valley later this
afternoon into tonight. This will be accompanied by a secondary cold
front that will move east across our area late this afternoon into
this evening. Ahead of the front, increasing southerly flow will
develop with wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range this afternoon.
This will result in good WAA up into the region with afternoon highs
ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the to upper 80s across our far
southeast. As surface dewpoints rise into the mid to possibly upper
60s across our southeast, instability will increase across our south
with surface based capes up to around 2000 J/KG possible across our
far southeast.
As the short wave approaches, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop across our far south through late afternoon and then
spread east across the rest of our southern areas through the evening
hours. With increasing shear profiles, a few severe storms will be
possible as we head into this evening, especially across our
southeast. The primary threat will remain damaging winds and possibly
large hail, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out across our
extreme southeast.
There is some model uncertainty as to how much shower activity will
persist behind the front through the remainder of the night. However,
with the potential for a secondary wave to ride east northeast along
the front, will go ahead and linger shower activity through the
night, especially across the southeast half of our area. Lows
tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Some shower activity will likely linger into Saturday morning across
the southeast half of our area, but this should taper off from the
west as we head into the afternoon and the wave shifts off to our
east. Temperatures will be seasonably cool on Saturday with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A dry and cool forecast is in store for the extended period. High
pressure will be centered in or around the area through Mon and then
shift eastward on Tues. Nw upper flow will persist during this same
time and the combination of these will have temperatures in the 40s
overnight and near or in the low 70s during the day. A trailing
surface ridge looks to be in place over the eastern Ohio Valley
until a large area of high pressure dropping se into Lake Superior
pushes in and brings a cool northerly flow starting Thursday.
Heights remain relatively unchanged until a large ridge in the mid
sections of the country begins to raise them on Friday.
A weak return of southerly flow will combine with increasing heights
to push temperatures back to the upper 70s on Tues with lows in the
low-mid 50s. Not by any significant amount, but Wednesday will be
the warmest on tap for this period with highs in the low-mid 80s and
lows in the mid-upper 50s. Thurs/Fri will be just 2-3 deg cooler
than this. As a proxy, the Dayton normals at the end of the forecast
are 57/78, so the latter half of the forecast period looks to be
right in line with climatological norms.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread river valley fog early this morning will dissipate
through mid morning, but this will affect KLUK for the first hour or
two of the TAF period. Otherwise, southwest winds will increase to 15
to 25 knots later this morning and into this afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front. As we destabilize through the day, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will eventually develop late this
afternoon and continue into the evening. The best chance for this
appears to be to the southeast of the I-71 corridor though, so will
limit pcpn to a prob30 -shra into this evening at most of the TAF
sites.
As the front moves through, winds will swing around to the west-
northwest late this afternoon and into this evening. Will then hang
on to a p6sm -shra for some light showers on the back side of the
front, but there is some model uncertainty as to how widespread
these will end up being.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JGL

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion