Wrangell, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

612
FXAK67 PAJK 141846
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1046 AM AKDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.UPDATE...Aviation section updated to include the 18z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ Through Sunday night / During the day, the
influence of the high pressure ridge along the eastern gulf and
the panhandle. A strong front will move across the gulf towards
the coastline, spreading winds to the coast overnight along with
the rain from the next front. Gust for Baranof Island may reach
gusts of 40 mph with the remainder of the coastal areas increasing
to 25 to 35 mph gusts.
.LONG TERM...Key messages: Very active pattern continues with
multiple systems anticipated.
- A storm force low sweeps North bringing storm force winds to
  the NE Gulf, and heavy rain and strong winds to the rest of the
  panhandle through much of Monday.
-Another system moving North on the heels of the first
 system delivers another round of rain through the first half of
 Tuesday.
-A gale force low spins up and moves across the outer Gulf
 Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, this could bring a brief
 period of drier weather to parts of the Southern panhandle and
 inner mountain areas through the day on Tuesday.
-Another front arrives from the West on Thursday
-A gale force system enters the panhandle Friday into Saturday.
Details: A much more active weather pattern continues to show no
sign of abating anytime soon, as a broad area of longwave trough
across the Gulf (Rossby Wave) sees continued systems sweeping into
the panhandle. Forecaster confidence has increased that winds
along the gulf waters will increase to storm force or near storm
force winds of 45 - 50 kt along the northern gulf and northeast
gulf coast Sunday evening into Monday morning. Guidance has come
into better agreement on the low staying further west into the
Gulf of AK.
This solution will allow for less rain across the panhandle with
the heaviest rain falling along the north and central panhandle
and rain totals around 1 to 3 inches. Alongside gulf winds
strengthening to 45-50 kt across much of the NE Gulf Coast, also
anticipate inner channel winds to strengthen to 25 - 30 kt,
especially for the southern and central inner channels. It is
looking increasingly likely that winds over land may also be a
little stronger than previously forecast, with sustained winds for
many overland locations likely to reach 20 to 25 kt, with the
strongest winds likely to occur across the Outer Gulf Coast, the
southern panhandle, and Juneau.
The front will continue to plague the panhandle, as after
initially pushing inland, its eastern flank will begin to
retrograde westward, slowly moving back across the panhandle, and
sending abundant moisture streaming north Monday night into
Tuesday, resulting in additional rainfall. In the wake of the now-
westward moving front, a brief period of drier weather is likely
for parts of the panhandle through the day on Tuesday, especially
as moisture that would otherwise be flowing northward is briefly
pulled back to the south by a developing triple point low.
This triple point low is looking increasingly likely to bring at
least gale force winds to the outer coastal waters as it races
northward late Tuesday into Wednesday, and bringing onshore flow
in its wake - leading to more rain across the panhandle.
Through the second half of the week, another front will move into
the panhandle Thursday into Friday, followed by another,
significantly stronger gale force system Friday. This latter
system could bring with it a plume of moisture, and periods of
moderate to heavy rain, especially to the NE Gulf Coast. Ensembles
have also begun to lock onto the chance of a strong system for
the latter half of next weekend, though the timing and location of
the feature remain murky this far out.
&&
.AVIATION...Patchy fog and low clouds have been impacting flying
weather around parts of the panhandle this morning. Petersburg,
Wrangell, Angoon, and at times Gustavus were all down to 1/4 mile,
or less, visibility. As of 1830z, Angoon, Gustavus, and
Petersburg have improved to VFR but Wrangell is still seeing very
low visibility.
Current thinking is VFR for the panhandle today with Wrangell
seeing improving conditions later this morning with VFR this
afternoon.
Then comes the storm force front that is moving into the eastern
gulf later today and is expected to reach the panhandle by Sunday
evening. This front is expected to bring periods of heavy rain,
strong ESE winds, and LLWS.
This front is expected to reach outer coastal communities and
move inland late tonight, with impacts increasing through Monday
due to wind speeds expected to pick up. Rain will push first into
the central and southern panhandle and then into the north with
this system. A big concern will be strong sustained winds between
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 to 35 knots increasing through
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A storm force frontal system begins
pushing its way through the eastern Gulf of Alaska from the
southwest Sunday afternoon. As it approaches the Outer Coast,
expect high end gales to low end storm force sustained winds into
Monday. The highest winds will be centered over the eastern Gulf
between near Cape Edgecumbe & Cape Suckling as the front
approaches & moves through. Expect significant wave heights to
peak out at around 20 to 28 ft as the frontal system pushes
through late Sunday night through Monday. As the front drifts back
westward as we approach midweek, a wave will develop along the
front as it reenters the eastern gulf & push northward, bringing
more gale force winds to the eastern gulf waters.
Inner Channels: As the aforementioned front pushes through late
Sunday night through Monday, expect between small craft(23 to < 33
kt) & up to low end gale force(35 to < 40 kt) winds across the
Southeast Alaskan Inner Channels. The strongest winds will be the
farther south and west you go. Significant wave heights of between
around 4 and 7 ft are likely with higher values near ocean
entrances. Up to small craft winds are expected through midweek from
the aforementioned wave, as well.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ323.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ326-329.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ664.
     Gale Warning for PKZ641>644-661>663-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032>036-053-651-652.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...Bezenek
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NWS AJK Office Area Forecast Discussion