Wurtland, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

561
FXUS61 KRLX 281814
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
214 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure provides dry weather through much of next
week. A tropical system becomes a hurricane off the Florida coast
on Tuesday, and then heads northeast further into the Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...
Surface high pressure slowly traversing eastward north of the
area will provide dry weather through the period. High temperatures
today and tomorrow will be well above normal (~ 10 degrees),
with upper 70s to mid 80s across the lowlands, while mid 60s to
mid 70s across the mountains. Widespread sunshine is expected
today, with just a FEW/SCT Cu field in spots. Lows tonight will
be in the 50s across the CWA, with another night of widespread
valley fog expected, but perhaps a touch less so than this
morning. Fog will likely be dense in spots. Monday will be
partly to mostly cloudy as mid/high level clouds build in from
the southeast in association with moisture from a tropical
system, currently Tropical Depression Nine, but could contain
more sunshine if trends in track further southeast continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...
The short term period will focus on the impacts of what is
currently Tropical Depression Nine as it moves north towards the
southeast coast. Guidance continues to trend the center of the
circulation further east away from the southeast coast, with the
latest run of the GEFS trending all ensemble members significantly
further ESE than at this time yesterday. Locally, this trend
means that any noteworthy impacts are not expected. Mid/upper
level flow will attempt to funnel moisture in association with
TD9 northwards towards the area Monday night and Tuesday,
potentially resulting in ISOLD (20-30%) light showers across the
eastern/southern mountains, but given the current trends, this
is even beginning to look more unlikely. Increased cloud cover
is expected Monday night and Tuesday, with highs Tuesday ranging
from the mid 70s to low 80s in the lowlands, with mid 60s to
low 70s in the mountains. Lows Monday night will range from the
mid 50s to low 60s in the lowlands, with 50s in the mountains.
Lows Tuesday night will be ~ 5-10 degrees cooler. Some river
valley fog is possible both nights, but especially Monday night
given more clearing.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...
An extended period of dry weather is progged to continue through
the entirety of the long term period as stout surface high
pressure gradually builds in from the north and east. Days will
be filled with plenty of sunshine, while nights feature the
potential for river valley fog. Above normal highs (~5 degrees)
on Wednesday will trend towards normal on Wednesday/Thursday as
a back door cold front attempts to push through the forecast
area. Given an increasingly dry airmass across the region, lows
near to slightly below normal are favored.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Sunday...
Low stratus has finally mixed out, with just a FEW/SCT Cu field
(025-050) expected this afternoon in spots, primarily in/near
the mountains. Otherwise, dry weather will persist through the
TAF period, with the only aviation concern being the likely
development of dense valley fog once again tonight, perhaps a
little less widespread than this morning. VLIFR is currently
progged for all terminals by late tonight. Fog gradually
lifts into stratus Monday morning, with a return to VFR expected
from ~1330-1500Z.
Winds will be light and variable with a northeast component
today. Flow goes calm tonight, with light east-northeast flow
developing on Monday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight with fog, high otherwise.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions
overnight with fog may vary from the forecast, along with the
timing of improving conditions on Monday morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR is possible with river valley fog each morning through Friday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion