Yellow Tank New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

056
FXUS64 KEPZ 151154
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
554 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
...New FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
- A channel of tropical moisture remains over the region. Aloft,
   a trough to our west will keep the atmosphere unsettled. This
   should allow for another day and evening with isolated to
   scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday
   evening. However, most locations will stay dry.
- Drier air moves in sharply from the west on Thursday. The rest
   of the week, and the weekend ahead, should be dry, with near
   zero chances for showers or thunderstorms. Temperatures will
   warm back to near normal temperatures for mid-October.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The pair of tropical storm systems that ejected abundantly deep
moisture into our airmass are long gone history, but we yet to be
able to scour out that moisture. In fact, several days after the
storms demise, we continue with a relatively deep and rich
moisture content. Just this evening, our weather balloon recorded
nearly 1.25" of PWAT, with is more than double mid-October
normals. We`ve been too cloudy and cool to be sharply unstable,
but with some upper level drying, we are trending toward less
cloud, more sun, warmer temperatures, and better instability. In
addition, the longwave trough to our west will continue to send
ripples of shortwave energy through the flow across our region. In
addition, we are seeing some minor low-level convergence. All
this means we will continue with POPS in the forecast for WED and
WED evening. The CAM models are again suggesting minimal daylight
activity, with a round of storms both tonight and again WED night,
tracking in on disturbances moving north out of Mexico, directly
into the Rio Grande Valley area (Skewed west tonight, and east
tomorrow night).
With the return of sunshine today, we saw more convective cloud
development this afternoon, and warmer surface temperatures, with
highs at and slightly above normal. The Borderland skies should
repeat what we saw today, with another afternoon of near seasonal
temperatures.  Winds will favor southeasterly, and stay mostly
light, with some afternoon breezes in the 10-15 mph range.  Again,
we will be watching for evening storms to fire and move in from the
south over the RGV area and eastward.
Thursday will be our "dryout" day as the upper low, embedded in
the longwave, west coast trough, lifts from Las Vegas, NE into the
Northern Rockies. This will give us an uptick in wind speeds, and
turn them from SE and S to SW, which will pull in deep layer
drier air. By the time the atmosphere warms enough to destabilize,
the moisture will be east of our area, and we will be too dry to
spark any showers or storms. Friday continues and intensifies the
drying as another low pressure wave, drops in from the NW, and
track directly over our CWA. We will see a further increase in
winds, with near windy conditions, and more veering to the west,
which will complete the drying. We will likely see a slight drop
in temperatures.
Following the Friday trough passage, high pressure aloft builds
directly over the region. The high pressure won`t have a lot of
effect on our temperatures, as it will be relatively weak and short-
lived, but we will see seasonably dry conditions with near average
temperatures.
Going into next week, the GFS and EC models part ways, but both show
low pressure systems developing upstream to our west. The GFS with a
progressive pattern, tracking lows to our north, never connecting
with any moisture, and keeping us dry, with breezy afternoons. The
EC develops a cutoff low which does scoop moisture and directs it
over our region, for rain chances TUE/WED. No confidence in either
solution this far out.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Conditions will be similar to what we saw yesterday. Generally
light breeziness everywhere this afternoon with speeds
10-12G18-22KT but KTCS will be the breeziest terminal with speeds
reaching 20G30KT by mid-afternoon. Dry conditions today but
another round of thunderstorms will push north out of northern
Mexico tonight after 02Z. KELP and KLRU have the highest chances
of seeing a storm with KDMN and KTCS lesser probabilities.
Thunderstorms could become strong with damaging winds and hail
with the strongest storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 541 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Low fire danger through at least the remainder of the work week.
Min RH values will be 35-45% in the lowlands and 50-65% in the
area mountains this afternoon but dry conditions after tonight
will continue to decrease RHs each day. One last round of
thunderstorms expected to after sunset tonight, impacting
generally the Rio Grande Valley and surrounding areas. Some storms
may become strong producing hail and gusty outflow winds. By
Saturday, min RHs dip to 17-25% in the lowlands and 20-30% in the
mountains. Expect similar RHs heading into early next week. 20
foot winds will generally be 5-10 mph each afternoon becoming calm
overnight but isolated locations may see speeds 10-15 mph.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  83  58  79 /  20   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            58  82  53  76 /  10  10  10   0
Las Cruces               55  77  48  73 /  20   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  79  50  74 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  58  38  54 /  10  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    53  76  47  73 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City              46  68  42  66 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   52  78  47  75 /  20   0   0   0
Lordsburg                49  72  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       63  79  56  75 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City                60  84  53  79 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             64  87  58  81 /  10  10  10   0
Loma Linda               58  75  52  70 /  10  10   0   0
Fabens                   61  83  55  78 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             59  78  51  74 /  20   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           61  79  53  75 /  20   0   0   0
Jornada Range            56  76  48  73 /  30   0   0   0
Hatch                    54  79  47  75 /  30   0   0   0
Columbus                 55  79  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                58  78  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
Mayhill                  50  71  45  67 /  10  10   0   0
Mescalero                49  70  42  65 /  10  10   0   0
Timberon                 47  67  42  63 /  10  10   0   0
Winston                  41  70  35  66 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                48  76  45  73 /  20   0   0   0
Spaceport                53  76  45  72 /  30   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             43  69  37  68 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   46  71  42  69 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  74  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               44  69  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  48  71  44  68 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   48  75  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  48  75  45  72 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           49  77  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               48  69  45  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...37-Slusher

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion