953 FXUS64 KOHX 072338 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 638 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 637 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
- High rain chances today, decreasing tonight.
- Cooler temperatures rest of this week with afternoon highs mainly in the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.
- Outlook for next week shows return to warmer than normal and dry pattern that has dominated our wx so far this fall.
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.UPDATE... Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
The cold front is currently making its way through Middle TN, and as it does so, rain has largely come to an end. At this time, the heaviest rain is now moving through the far eastern Plateau. While isolated lingering showers will be possible tonight, this chance remains low. Rain chances with this forecast update through the remainder of the night are generally 20-40% favoring the Plateau. Fog potential overnight should be low as well thanks to cloud cover. Dry conditions return tomorrow with cooler temperatures. High temperatures will be in the 70s with gusty northerly winds at around 15-25 mph in the wake of the front.
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.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Surface low pressure just north of Clarksville will move eastward across southern Ky through the rest of the day. Bands of showers will occur along the trailing trough in Middle Tn. So far, the heaviest rainfall has occurred up in Ky, but we may see a few moderate downpours and a few rumbles of thunder as a little more instability develops this afternoon. No severe storms are expected. A spot or 2 of brief street flooding may occur under heavier downpours, but overall, additional rainfall amounts under 1 inch should not cause flooding problems. Winds will be a bit gusty around 25 mph at times through mid afternoon, then the gustiness will decrease heading into the evening.
Scattered light showers will linger this evening and into the late night as a cold front drops into the area. Most of the rain will be done by daybreak Wednesday, but clouds and a few drips will linger well into the morning. The Plateau and southeast may hang on to clouds all day. Cooler and drier north to northeast winds will kick in by midday with gusts near 25 mph at times. Highs will be in the seasonally appropriate lower to mid 70s.
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.LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Cooler and dry conditions are expected through the rest of the week as surface high pressure from the Great Lakes and New England extends down into Tennessee. Moisture profiles suggest post- frontal clouds will be slow to exit the Plateau and southeast Wednesday night and into Thursday as well. Otherwise, conditions will be a bit breezy Wednesday night through Thursday with cool northeast winds gusting over 20 mph at times. Lows by Thursday morning will dip into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Highs Thursday will be on the cool side or normal, in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
As we go through the weekend into next week, upper level heights will rise and this will return us to the familiar pattern for this fall- dry with warm days and seasonable nights.
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
A surface cold front has made almost all the way through Middle Tennessee as we head into the evening. There are some lingering showers still impacting the Cumberland Plateau, but for the bulk of the mid state, the showers have ended. There will be a break of a few hours between the fropa and the onset of low ceilings as a swath of post-frontal moisture swings through the region beginning later this evening. Overnight radiation fog will be present but limited owing to winds staying up a few knots with the wind shift. Low ceilings will be slow to erode during the day tomorrow.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 75 51 74 / 10 0 0 0 Clarksville 61 76 49 73 / 10 0 0 0 Crossville 62 70 45 68 / 60 10 0 10 Columbia 64 75 49 72 / 10 0 0 0 Cookeville 63 71 47 70 / 40 0 0 0 Jamestown 60 69 46 68 / 50 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 63 73 48 70 / 20 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 65 75 49 73 / 20 0 0 0 Waverly 60 74 48 72 / 10 0 0 0
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.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Rose
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion