Youngsville North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

717
FXUS62 KRAH 110544
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly move north along the SE coast into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...
*Rain to spread into the Southeastern NC late tonight
Canadian high pressure extending south into the Carolinas will
gradually weaken ahead of the developing coastal low over Florida.
Cloud cover will continue to thicken and lower this evening and
tonight, with rain chances spreading inland into the southern and
central Coastal Plain counties during the predawn hours as
strengthening moist easterly Atlantic maritime feed expands north
into the area.
NELY gustiness of 15-20 mph will subside this evening before re-
developing late tonight as the pressure gradient tightens once
again.
Not as cool overnight, with lows ranging from lower 50s NW to lower
60s SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...
*Rain and breezy conditions spreading inland through Saturday night
A deepening upper level trough and associated closed low pivoting
over the Southeast will help lift the coastal low near Florida
northward along the NC coast by Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Strengthening easterly Atlantic flow will transport deep moisture
(PWs 1.5-1.75 inches)inland through the period. Rain will gradually
spread from the southern coastal plain into the Sandhills and
central Piedmont during the afternoon, expanding further inland into
the western Piedmont during the evening and overnight hours as
frontogenetical forcing within the associated comma-head shifts
westward.
The heaviest rainfall amounts and greatest flooding will remain
focused along the NC coast, where higher rainfall amounts/rates are
expected. Across central NC, rainfall will generally be light to
briefly moderate, with a sharp east-to-west gradient in amounts-
--ranging from 1-1.5" east, 0.50-1.0" central, and 0.25-0.50" across
the western Piedmont.
Expect frequent NELY gusts of 20 to 25 mph, with peak gusts
potentially reaching 30 to 35 mph within the better rain bands
across eastern/coastal NC.
Widespread low clouds and westward expanding rain coverage will hold
afternoon highs to around 65 to 70 mph, with minimal nocturnal
cooling. Lows will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...
* No hazardous weather expected Mon thru Fri
The coastal low or lows on Sun near or off the NC coast will
gradually shift east, with the primary low forecast to be east of
Delmarva Mon night to early Tue. Barring some outlier solutions,
which bring the low inland Sun into Mon, most light rain and drizzle
should come to and end Mon, though could linger for the morning
hours over the northern Coastal Plain. Cloud cover will gradually
lessen through the day, slowest to lift in the east, with some gusts
to 20 mph into early afternoon. Highs will stay below average in the
mid 60s NE to low 70s SW. Lows to be in the low to mid 50s under
clearing skies.
High pressure ridging extending east from the southern Plains and MS
valley will favor a gradual rise in highs to above average from the
low/mid 70s Tue to mid/upper 70s Wed. Models and their ensembles are
in fairly good agreement that a dry cold front will advance
southward Wed night from the OH valley and Great Lakes region. A
cool 1020+ mb high settles over the region by Fri. Highs Thu and Fri
will thus trend near to slightly below normal in the upper 60s to
low 70s. We could see low/mid 40s for lows Fri morning under the
cool high pressure system.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 AM Saturday...
24-hour TAF period: Timing of the low clouds and rainfall are the
main challenges. It appears IFR conditions will overspread the
region from the southeast this afternoon, along with areas of rain.
CIGS should lower into the IFR to LIFR tonight with lowering VSBYS
in rain and fog. Most of the steady rain may stay just SE of the
Triad terminals into the night, before arriving late tonight.
Surface winds will increase to 15-25 kt today and tonight. Some
gusts may exceed 30 knots especially Sunday.
Beyond 06Z Sunday: This period should feature IFR to LIFR conditions
with areas of rain and fog. Improvements may be limited until Monday
if the main upper low lingers as some models suggest.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...RAH

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion