Youngsville New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

404
FXUS65 KABQ 141927
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
127 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Flooding of creeks, streams, and arroyos will be a concern
  across the area in locations with repeated rounds of rainfall.
  The Animas River and San Juan River near Farmington may cause
  minor flooding impacts.
- There is a marginal risk for severe storms over much of central
  NM today and over much of north central NM on Wednesday.
- The first freeze of the season is possible for areas in the
  Estancia Valley, San Agustin Plains and near Reserve this
  weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 118 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The wet start to the week continues today as showers with some
rumbles of thunder are gliding across far eastern NM early this
afternoon, giving way for expected development of showers and
thunderstorms across the central mountain chain. This is in response
to the remnant tropical moisture still remaining over NM while an
upper level speed max provides a secondary method of lift in
addition to orographic forcing. With the orientation of the low
level flow compared to the speed max, training thunderstorms are a
possibility across east central NM through the late afternoon.
Training and/or repeated rounds of thunderstorms may increase a
localized flash flood threat in poor drainage and low lying areas.
This is highlighted by the Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall by the
WPC. Additionally, sufficient 0-6km bulk shear near or exceeding
50kts and modest SBCAPE near or over 1000 J/kg supports an
atmosphere capable of producing a strong to severe thunderstorm.
This is well highlighted by the SPC`s Marginal Risk over much of
central NM through this afternoon. There is question as to whether
mid-level dry air may limit storms that can develop, or if low
clouds across eastern NM do not allow for sufficient surface
heating. These factors are limiting any higher confidence in the
development of severe storms today.
Through tonight, a second round of showers with embedded
thunderstorms is likely to develop near or after midnight due to the
continued influence from an approaching potent upper level trough.
These showers are likely to continue into the early morning hours,
moving from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe and then tapering off most
likely by 7am except for the northern mountains. That is where
Wednesday`s precipitation will focus, as upslope south/southeast
flow continues to be enhanced by upper level forcing from the
speed max and associated trough. Bulk shear and SBCAPE will once
again be sufficient enough for a strong storm or two to
potentially develop, but the same caveats as Tuesday also remain.
Elsewhere, temperatures remain roughly within 5 degrees of normal,
and a blanket of low clouds and isolated instances of fog are
likely Wednesday morning across eastern and parts of central NM.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 118 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be continuing through
Thursday morning/mid afternoon across the northern mountains as the
upper level low continues to provide influence. As the upper low
progresses eastward and the trough axis passes through NM, drier air
will make its way into the state late Thursday into Friday, nearly
shutting down precipitation chances outside of a stray shower across
the highest terrain. Alongside this, pressure height falls on the
backside of the trough as well as a building ridge are very likely
to produce mainly clear skies and calm conditions. With these in
place, low temperatures are expected to fall near or below freezing
for a few locations across northern and western NM for the first
time this season. As such, consideration for Freeze Watches and
subsequent Freeze Warnings may be needed as we get closer to the
weekend. Outside of sub-freezing temperatures overnight, a
pleasant stretch of weather is expected through the weekend as the
ridge continues to build into place. As we approach next week,
the general model trend shows the ridge breaking down as a Pacific
upper level low approaches from the west. A return to windy
conditions may be on the horizon, as these patterns this time of
year normally bring increased winds. MEX and ECX guidance also
show an increase in winds along and east of the central mountain
in the normally windy areas (Clines Corners, Las Vegas).
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Across western NM, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the TAF period. Along and east of the central mountain chain, a mix
of VFR to MVFR to IFR conditions are likely to persist throughout
much of the TAF period. Showers moving across eastern NM as of 18z
are likely to depart around 20-21z, in which additional
convection looks to fire across the central mountains after
20-21z. Any direct hits to terminals are likely to produce short-
lived MVFR to IFR conditions, with the highest confidence for
KLVS. This initial round of convection should persist through 01z,
and thereafter a second batch of showers with a low chance of an
embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop across central NM.
This gives a chance for showers at KSAF after 03z, and KABQ/KAEG
after 06z, and thus is included in the TAF. IFR or lower ceilings
are expected to develop along the central mountains late tonight
after 06-09z, with KLVS likely experiencing another early morning
round of fog and possible LIFR/VLIFR conditions. KSAF is likely to
see MVFR to localized IFR ceilings during this same timeframe.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are likely. One other mention is the low
chance of LLWS at KGUP near and after 12z, but confidence was not
high enough to put in the TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next
several days. Showers and thunderstorms with wetting footprints are
likely across much of central and northern NM this
afternoon/evening, tonight, and Wednesday. A drying trend begins
Thursday through the weekend, where calm conditions may bring the
first freeze to some western and northern locations. Winds are
looking favorable to increase next week with the approach of an
upper level trough, but timing and strength are still in question.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  73  42  60 /  20  30  10   0
Dulce...........................  43  69  39  61 /  50  80  70   5
Cuba............................  50  69  40  60 /  40  60  50  10
Gallup..........................  44  68  33  60 /   0   5   0   0
El Morro........................  47  71  38  60 /   5  10   5   0
Grants..........................  49  75  39  65 /  10  30  10   0
Quemado.........................  48  72  38  63 /   5   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  55  71  47  68 /  30   5  10   0
Datil...........................  50  71  40  65 /  20  10   5   0
Reserve.........................  47  75  39  70 /   5   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  50  78  43  73 /  10   5   0   0
Chama...........................  42  64  37  56 /  50  80  70  10
Los Alamos......................  52  65  49  62 /  70  70  70  20
Pecos...........................  50  64  47  62 /  80  60  70  10
Cerro/Questa....................  49  67  45  60 /  50  50  60  10
Red River.......................  42  59  39  52 /  40  40  60  10
Angel Fire......................  38  64  37  59 /  50  40  60  10
Taos............................  49  70  46  64 /  50  50  70   5
Mora............................  47  63  45  64 /  70  60  70  20
Espanola........................  54  74  50  69 /  70  70  80  10
Santa Fe........................  54  68  51  62 /  70  60  70  10
Santa Fe Airport................  52  71  50  65 /  70  60  70  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  76  56  67 /  60  30  50   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  77  54  70 /  60  30  40   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  80  53  72 /  50  30  30   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  77  54  70 /  60  30  40   5
Belen...........................  56  79  50  73 /  40  10  20   0
Bernalillo......................  57  79  53  70 /  70  40  50   5
Bosque Farms....................  55  79  50  72 /  50  20  30   5
Corrales........................  57  79  53  71 /  60  40  40   5
Los Lunas.......................  56  79  51  72 /  50  20  20   0
Placitas........................  55  75  52  65 /  70  40  50   5
Rio Rancho......................  57  77  53  70 /  60  40  40   5
Socorro.........................  58  80  52  76 /  50   5  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  71  49  62 /  70  40  50   5
Tijeras.........................  54  72  50  64 /  70  40  50   5
Edgewood........................  50  73  48  65 /  60  40  50   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  74  47  67 /  60  30  40   5
Clines Corners..................  48  66  48  65 /  60  30  40   5
Mountainair.....................  50  72  49  66 /  60  20  30   5
Gran Quivira....................  49  72  49  67 /  60  10  30   5
Carrizozo.......................  55  77  54  73 /  40  10  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  50  71  50  66 /  20  20  10  10
Capulin.........................  49  64  50  67 /  30  10  20   5
Raton...........................  51  67  50  70 /  50  10  30   5
Springer........................  52  68  52  72 /  50  20  30   0
Las Vegas.......................  50  63  49  66 /  70  50  60  10
Clayton.........................  54  74  55  75 /  10   0   5   5
Roy.............................  52  67  52  70 /  40  20  30  10
Conchas.........................  55  76  56  78 /  40  20  30  10
Santa Rosa......................  52  70  54  74 /  40  20  30  10
Tucumcari.......................  53  77  55  79 /  10   5  10  10
Clovis..........................  54  80  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
Portales........................  53  80  55  83 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  55  76  57  79 /  30   5  10  10
Roswell.........................  58  80  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
Picacho.........................  52  77  52  80 /  10  10   5  10
Elk.............................  49  77  51  77 /  10  10   5  10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion