Zavalla, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

700
FXUS64 KSHV 051856
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
156 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Warmer conditions will persist for today, but a cold front will
   bring cooler temperatures and thunderstorms tonight and over
   the weekend.
- A Marginal Risk for severe weather remains in place for
   portions of the area, mainly for late this evening through the
   early morning hours on Saturday.
- Dry and less humid weather is expected for much of next week,
   with a slow and gradually warming trend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A change in the upper-level pattern has taken shape across the
region over the past 12 to 18 hours, as northwest flow has
transition to a southwesterly flow aloft. This has resulted in an
influx of Pacific moisture in the region, aided by the remnants
of Tropical Cyclone Lorena near Baja Mexico. Most of moisture has
been elevated, resulting in a large shield of high clouds streaming
over the area. However, the previously mentioned cool front
advertise for today has already arrived into our zones north of
Interstate 30, yielding some light showers since this morning over
those areas. Ahead of the front, another hot day is on tap across
the region. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures have already
climbed into the upper 80s and lower 90s, and will likely top out
in the low to mid 90s. These hot temperatures are likely aided by
some compressional heating ahead of the front. Although many
locations will see heat index values over the 100 degree mark
today, we decided to not issue a Heat Advisory, as heat indices
above the 105 advisory threshold will remain very isolated.
With southwest flow over the region, winds aloft will remain
relatively parallel to the front, keeping it from moving much
through the remainder of the day. Short-term progs continue to
suggest that there will be an uptick in convection near the front
along and north of I-30, as we move into the late afternoon and
evening hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates could result in some
isolated strong to severe convection during this period. Another
short-wave trough will move across the Plains and Midwest, which
will push the front and convection southward across the region
overnight and through the day on Saturday. As of now, the Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for severe storms for
areas along and north of Interstate 20 tonight through the
predawn hours Saturday morning. The main threat will likely be
large hail with the initial uptick convection, then strong winds
as it forms into more of line along the southward moving cool
front. Rain chances should spread to the remainder of the forecast
area on Saturday with the passage of the front. Some lingering
rain chances will remain on Sunday, especially across our East
Texas zones along and south of I-20, as another disturbance is
expected to move across Central Texas.
As we move into next week, a large dome of high pressure will
slide across the Midwest then Northeastern CONUS. The clockwise
northeasterly winds around the high will bring drier and less
humid air into the region. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday
will likely remain in the 80s areawide, with a slight warming
trend into the upper 80s and lower 90s by the middle and end of
the week. With dewpoints expected to remain in the 50s, and long-
term progs forecasting morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
it will still feel like a hint of early fall across the region.
/20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
For the 05/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail this afternoon
with an expanding cu field and increasing cirrus in advance of a
cold front shifting south through the Southern Plains. Convection is
expected to gradually increase across our airspace along and ahead
of this front as we move into this evening and overnight. Convective
trends should begin to decrease after daybreak by mid to late
morning on Saturday so have accounted for this with a transition
from VCTS to VCSH. If confidence in greater convective coverage
continues to increase, will likely need SHRA/TSRA at most if not
all sites in future TAF cycles. Aside from the convection, look
for cigs to drop rapidly invof of the cold front with MVFR and IFR
conditions expected late in the period. Otherwise, look for a S
to N/NE wind shift with fropa with speeds generally from 5-10 kts
with higher gusts invof convection.
/19/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Spotter activation could be needed tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  84  68 /   0  50  50  10
MLU  97  70  82  66 /   0  60  60  10
DEQ  89  65  78  62 /  20  60  40  10
TXK  94  68  81  65 /  20  60  50  10
ELD  94  65  79  61 /  10  60  50   0
TYR  94  70  83  67 /   0  50  50  20
GGG  95  70  84  67 /   0  50  50  10
LFK  95  73  90  70 /   0  10  30  20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...19

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion