503 FXUS66 KOTX 050508 AFDOTXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1008 PM PDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures trending cooler heading into this weekend and next week.
- Smoke and haze expected to continue through the weekend
- Breezy northeast winds for Idaho and portions of the Columbia Basin Thursday evening into Friday.
- Unsettled weather returning to the region over the weekend and into next week.
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.SYNOPSIS... Smoke and haze is expected to continue over the weekend while temperatures gradually trend cooler. Precipitation chances will be on the gradual increase next week, along with more significant cooling across the region as high temperatures drop into the 70s.
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.DISCUSSION... Tonight and Friday: An upper ridge centered over Eastern Washington and North Idaho will continue to promote warm and dry conditions. Conditions also will remain unstable in the mountains through early this evening with Red Flag Warnings in place. With the ridge weakening, and with an increase in haze and smoke, temperatures are forecast to be cooler on Friday. Also contributing to the cooling is a push of northeast winds into north Idaho and the Columbia Basin in response to wave dropping down east of the Continental Divide. With the ridge axis over Eastern WA/N Idaho, this will result in southerly flow for the Cascades. The southerly flow will draw up some increased mid level moisture and instability, with a 15% chance of a thunderstorm Friday afternoon near the Cascade crest.
Saturday through Thursday: Additional weather disturbances coming in from the south ahead of the offshore low arrive this weekend, resulting in a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm chances especially for the Cascades on Sunday. Given the elevated nature of the storms concerns include gusty outflow winds, lightning, and new fire starts. Unfortunately the winds don`t look strong enough to scour out the haze and smoke, and will likely remain in place this weekend. Although outflow gusts could move the smoke around resulting in fluctuation levels of haze and smoke. Heading into next week, the low off the coast gradually pushes in bringing additional rounds of scattered shower activity as well as possible thunderstorms. The cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and shower activity will be good news for area fires. The cooling and moistening trend should also begin to help the smoke and haze situation across the region. JW
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.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Visibility is expected to be restricted from wildfire smoke regionwide for the next several days. Visibility is expected to range from 4-7 miles for most of Central and Eastern Washington and north Idaho, but areas near fires including Colville will see restrictions as low as 1 mile.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence in precise visibilities at the TAF sites due to shifting winds out of the northeast overnight tonight into Friday morning for the Columbia Basin, Palouse, and north Idaho. The wind shift could shift the surface smoke around with fluctuating visibility.
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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
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.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 60 89 61 92 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Coeur d`Alene 60 89 59 92 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Pullman 58 88 57 90 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 20 20 Lewiston 66 94 66 95 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 20 20 Colville 50 88 51 92 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Sandpoint 53 86 54 89 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Kellogg 59 87 61 90 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Moses Lake 65 93 63 90 62 85 / 0 0 0 10 20 30 Wenatchee 69 92 71 88 68 83 / 0 0 0 10 30 40 Omak 66 93 66 90 66 88 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
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.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Central Chelan County-Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains- Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee Area.
Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)- Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)- Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700).
ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Saturday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Northern Panhandle.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Northern Panhandle.
Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Friday for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties- Lewiston Area.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.
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NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion