Meyers Chuck, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

671
FXAK67 PAJK 060539
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
939 PM AKDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.UPDATE...Aviation section updated to include the 06z TAF
issuance.
No adjustments were made to the forecast. The afternoon forecast
update is still largely on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
 - A front continues to push into the panhandle bringing moderate
   to heavy rain and increased winds.
 - A low pushes into the panhandle behind the front keeping winds
   elevated into Tuesday.
Details: The front continues to push into the panhandle and has
reached the central panhandle. Moderate to heavy rain with this
front is bringing 0.1 to 0.15 inch per hour rates as it moves across
the panhandle. These rates will continue as they reach the southern
panhandle this evening into tonight. Rain rate overall decrease
Monday night. Although weaker, a second wave of precipitation will
push into the panhandle Monday as the low pushes into the panhandle
behind the front.
Land winds with this front will increase to 10 to 15 mph. Stronger
land winds will arrive Monday for the northern panhandle due to a
tightening pressure gradient. On Monday afternoon, the strongest
winds are likely to occur near Skagway with sustained winds of 15 to
20 mph and gusts up to 35 mph possible. Along with land winds, the
strongest inner channels winds will also be located over the
northern panhandle with increased southerly winds throughout north
to south facing channels. These winds will begin to decrease Monday
night into Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...
Tuesday a long wave trough will be carrying a low and fronts
across the region, with widespread stratiform precip transitioning
to showers, a result of the cool unstable post frontal airmass.
Freezing levels continue to drop, likely reaching 3,000 to 4,000ft
Tuesday morning for the north. Main threat to see a dusting of
snow will be along the upper portions of White Pass but weak
snowfall rates and warm soil temperatures will limit any
significant impacts to roads. Showers decrease late Tuesday as a
ridge builds across the Gulf, bringing stout northwest winds to
the coastal waters and drier/cooler conditions to the Panhandle.
Another weak system impacts the region late Thursday into Friday
bringing warmer onshore flow and rain; snow to areas above
3,000ft.
Attention turns to the potential for our first cold outflow event
this fall; at this time the source region of the air mass,
surface high, and duration leave much to be desired in terms of
seeing long duration (12+ hours) gale to storm force winds.
Current forecast reflects a short period of northerly gale force
conditions Friday into Saturday for Lynn Canal, with further trend
analysis required moving through the week. For reference, most
guidance has agreement on peak sea level pressure difference
between CYXY-PAJN at 9mb and PAGY-PAJN near 5mb, which
historically signifies sustained gale force winds this time of
year. Main impact is colder surface temperatures for the northern
Panhandle, with overnight temps likely reaching into the 20s this
weekend, particularly concerning for our unhoused community.
&&
.AVIATION...The main weather story for SE AK for the next couple
of days is the incoming low pressure that will slide SE through
the Gulf. Through Monday afternoon, the low pressure will spin
near south-central Alaska. As it spins, it will push a front
through the gulf and the panhandle tonight into Monday morning.
As the front tracks through, it will bring MVFR to, at times, IFR
CIGs and VIS flight conditions. Gusty winds are possible across
northern TAF sites through Monday.
Reduced (mainly MVFR) flight conditions are expected to continue in
the wake of the front across much of southeast AK late Monday into
Tuesday. The moist onshore flow will continue ahead of the
previously mentioned approaching low out of the northern Gulf.
LLWS values around 20kt up to 2000ft will be possible across the
southern peninsula this evening as the front drops south through
early Monday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Inside Waters: As the front continues to move across the panhandle,
winds across the inner channels will increase to fresh to strong
breezes of 17 to 27 kts. These winds will remain elevated into
Monday morning before the southern channels start to see decreasing
winds. For the northern channels, winds will continue, even slightly
increase, as the north to south pressure gradient gets stronger.
Strong winds will continue over N. Lynn Canal, slightly increasing,
as southerly strong breezes of 22 to 27 kts with near gale wind
gusts up to 33 kts. Other northern and central channels will see
fresh breezes with winds near 15 to 20 kts. Winds will begin to
diminish Monday night into Tuesday.
Outside Waters: Behind the front, fresh breezes around 20 kts
continue in the gulf before the next low pressure system arrives
Monday morning. As this system pushes to the east, winds will
increase to 25 to 30 kts with gale force gusts along the far
offshore waters. Similar to the inside waters, winds greatly
diminish Monday night into Tuesday. Significant wave heights
slightly subside this evening before the next system. As the next
system arrives Monday, seas build to 12 to 14 ft with 16 ft in the
far offshore waters due to a southwest swell.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-641>644-651-652-
     661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...EAB
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